Fluorochemicals Monthly Insight (October 2025): Market Volatility and Outlook (Part 1)

In October 2025, the domestic fluorite market rebounded and improved, with the overall market showing a strong trend.

October , driven by cost support, tight supply, and rising expectations for downstream bidding. As of October 27 , the average price of industrial-grade anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in China rose 9.28% month-on-month compared to September .

The price of hydrogen fluoride fluctuated significantly this month. Following the upward trend at the end of September, prices peaked at the beginning of the month, then entered a period of consolidation after the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays. The market remained stagnant with a weak and stable trend in the middle of the month, before showing signs of weakness at the end. Overall, mainstream delivered prices for hydrogen fluoride remained stable this month , with actual transaction prices negotiated flexibly based on order size, transportation distance, and quality differences. The room for negotiation widened slightly in the latter part of the month .

Key Market Points

Fluorite: Overall, the domestic fluorite market showed a clear divergence in performance before and after the holidays in October . At the beginning of the month, ahead of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, the market continued the upward trend from the end of September . Driven by tight spot supply, high costs, and downstream demand for pre-holiday stockpiling, high-priced fluorite orders were gradually implemented, and market sentiment remained bullish. After the holidays, the pace of trade in the fluorite market slowed down, and the recovery in trading after the market reopened was less than expected. Although most companies maintained firm offers, downstream customers were less accepting of high prices after continuous restocking in the previous period, and there was insufficient activity in new order negotiations. The market gradually entered a stalemate at high levels. Since the middle and late October, negative sentiment in the market has increased, traders' willingness to ship has strengthened, and continued price concessions have dragged down the center of gravity of new orders slightly. Coupled with downstream companies' lack of confidence in the future market and their purchase pace maintaining only essential needs, the market atmosphere of price pressure and wait-and-see is strong, and prices have shown a gradual downward trend overall. Despite tight supply and high costs supporting fluorite prices, and growing expectations of winter shutdowns in northern regions, weak demand intensified the bargaining between buyers and sellers, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the market. Consequently, prices at the end of the month fell significantly from their intraday highs.

Hydrogen fluoride:

Brief market analysis for this month:

Supply side: The operating rate of hydrogen fluoride production increased this month compared to last month. On the one hand, market order prices rose significantly this month, which significantly improved production profits and effectively stimulated market production enthusiasm, with some manufacturers whose plants had been shut down gradually restarting. On the other hand, October is still in the traditional peak season for demand, and downstream procurement demand is still acceptable, providing room for market supply to increase.

On the demand side: Overall demand this month warmed up compared to the previous period, but the peak season effect was insufficient. The recovery of logistics after the holiday spurred a wave of restocking driven by immediate needs, leading to a brief period of active market trading, but demand did not subsequently show sustained improvement. Refrigerant manufacturers maintained production to meet basic raw material needs, gradually weakening in the latter half of the month; demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate was strong, providing some support for raw materials; overall demand in other sectors such as fluoropolymers and electronic acids remained weak.

Inventory: This month, enterprise inventory pressure first increased and then eased, remaining at a moderately high level overall. Post-holiday social inventory was high. As enterprises actively implemented order fulfillment and accelerated inventory turnover, downstream demand remained sluggish, resulting in slower-than-expected inventory reduction. Some enterprises still faced some inventory pressure in the middle and latter part of the month, awaiting further digestion to a reasonable range.

In summary, the hydrogen fluoride market in October benefited from cost support and post-holiday restocking, keeping prices firm in the first half of the month. However, in the second half of the month, the market entered a stalemate due to the intense struggle between high costs and weak demand, with a weak and stable market pattern dominating. The industry's outlook for the future is not optimistic.