Fluorochemicals Monthly Insight (October 2025): Market Volatility and Outlook (Part 2)

◼Market Outlook

Fluorite: With winter approaching and colder weather limiting mine operations in many areas, the domestic fluorite production remains weak and supply is tight, providing solid support for prices. However, the current off-season in the fluorochemicals sector is evident, with a bearish outlook for hydrofluoric acid prices and insufficient fluorite purchasing intentions. Demand-side headwinds remain strong. Amid this tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiment, while some manufacturers maintain a strong stance on price stabilization or even support, some concessions are still being made in the trading sector, and low-level transactions are gradually progressing.

In summary, concerns about fluorite demand persist in November , and the fluorite market is expected to continue its weak consolidation trend in the first half of the month. Transaction volumes in various regions may continue to decline slightly, and market activity is unlikely to improve significantly. However, as northern regions fully enter their winter shutdown period, further supply contraction may provide new support to the market. The interplay between buyers and sellers will continue, and the extent of actual transaction volume remains to be seen. Therefore, fluorite prices are expected to decline slightly in November , with an overall drop of 30-80 yuan/ton.

Regarding foreign trade, fluorite imports are expected to remain weak, and with the weather in Outer Mongolia turning colder, prices may gradually weaken, making significant improvement in the export market unlikely. Subsequent market developments will require close monitoring of regional safety and environmental policies, winter shutdown arrangements, foreign exchange and shipping conditions, and the operational status of downstream plants.

Hydrogen fluoride:

Weakening demand is evident, fueling a bearish sentiment in the market. Regarding November orders, the extent of expected price declines may vary across different regions. New orders for hydrogen fluoride in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are expected to see a slight decrease, with preliminary estimates suggesting an adjustment of 100-400 yuan/ton, and a low probability of stability. In the northern regions, due to recent concessions on some spot orders, the negotiated price may further decrease. Currently, the market is characterized by a wait-and-see attitude, with industry players awaiting news to guide market direction.