July 2025 Review: Fluorite market continues to weaken, narrowing at a low level

Market Overview: This month (2025.6.1-2025.6.27), the domestic fluorite market is on a downward trend. According to statistics, as of June 27, the domestic 97% wet powder market to the factory fell by 6.74% compared with the same period last month.

In general, the overall performance of domestic fluorite prices in June was consistent with that in May, with a downward trend as the main trend. Many manufacturers and trade orders were sold at a discount. Mainly affected by the policy environment and production costs, market sentiment in some regions began to change in the middle and late part of this month. Under cost pressure, production in many places declined, and manufacturers' shipment sentiment weakened. By the end of the month, the supply of goods in the market gradually tightened, and short-term price support for fluorite began to emerge. However, due to the long-term inverted profits of downstream manufacturers, the bearish sentiment of the industry in the market still exists, so the atmosphere of trading and negotiation in the market has been strengthened compared with May.

Supply: In June, the domestic production of acid-grade fluorite powder was more than 240,000 tons , a month-on-month increase of 1.51%. The fluorite industry started production at 47.68% this month. This month, the fluorite market has both reduced and resumed production. As a whole, affected by the industry's profits, it showed a pattern of first increasing and then decreasing.

Specifically:

The overall output of fluorite in the north increased slightly this month, and some plants resumed production at the beginning of the month. The current supply of raw ore has been tight for a long time, and the cost of the beneficiation plant is strong. However, the downstream purchasing price continued to decline in the middle of the month. Under the background of pressure on both ends, the profit of manufacturers has tightened significantly this month, the enthusiasm for starting work has gradually declined within the month, and the supply side has tightened slightly. Affected by this, the price-stabilizing mentality of fluorite holders in the northern region has strengthened this month. Most manufacturers have delivered long orders, and there are few scattered orders in the middle of the month. The wait-and-see mood of stockpiling has gradually spread. The start-up of fluorite devices in central China this month is relatively stable. Local enterprises are relatively concentrated, and supply fluctuations are limited. Most manufacturers use them for their own use or deliver long contracts. The trading performance is stable, and the price generally follows the market and runs slightly weak. The overall output of fluorite in the southern region this month has fallen slightly. Affected by the continuous sluggish market prices, the production of local fluorite beneficiation plants is under pressure. The number of equipment load reduction and shutdown in the middle of the month has increased. In addition, the increase in overseas supply is limited, so the anxiety of manufacturers has weakened, the wait-and-see mentality has strengthened, and the willingness to make substantial concessions is mediocre. The enthusiasm for local trade transactions has also weakened, and bearish expectations in the market still exist, but the reluctance to sell sentiment has also increased. Therefore, overall, the supply in the south has weakened slightly this month.

Demand: The demand for fluorite in June increased compared with May, and the bargaining sentiment in the market was stronger than before. The main reason was that the summer consumption was slightly weak. With the continued bearish mentality in the market, the scale of individual orders this month has shrunk. Specifically:

The hydrofluoric acid market trended downward in June, and the pessimistic mood in the market was hard to change. The demand for refrigerant purchases increased slightly in the middle of the month, but due to the current sufficient market supply and the drag of bearish expectations in the summer, the recent competition within the industry has been relatively fierce, and the price of new orders has continued to fall. In addition, supported by upstream and downstream, sulfuric acid has not shown any signs of decline recently, further squeezing the survival space of acid plants, spreading pessimism among industry players, weakening the enthusiasm for starting work, and slightly reducing the output for the whole month. Therefore, the willingness of acid plants to purchase fluorite this month has been limited, and they mainly choose to replenish stocks at low prices. Although there is a certain stabilization mentality, the price-pressing sentiment remains unabated under the negative guidance of new orders in July.

The aluminum fluoride market continued to weaken in June, and the industry continued to suffer losses. The overall cost of the aluminum fluoride industry was weak during the month, but due to more negative factors on the current demand side, the aluminum fluoride market is still maintaining a loss pattern. The long-term negative atmosphere has made it difficult for aluminum fluoride manufacturers to improve their pessimism, and the market supply has limited fluctuations. This month, the demand for fluorite is weak and stable, and the inventory is mainly replenished on demand. The purchaser is in a strong mood to negotiate prices.

Although the metallurgical market rebounded in June, it still could not hide the downward trend. Market costs rose during the month, and the black market rebounded for a short time. However, under the hot and rainy weather, the downstream construction of steel mills was hindered, and the demand support was difficult to increase in the near future, and the mentality of the industry was flat. Therefore, overall, the demand for metallurgical fluorite remained weak and stable this month.

Import and export analysis: In May 2025, my country imported 6020.404 tons of fluorite with calcium fluoride content > 97%, up 8.65% from the previous month, and exported 12913.166 tons, up 397.4% from the previous month; the total amount of imported fluorite powder with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% was 148566.928 tons, up 2.61% from the previous month, and the total amount of exported fluorite powder with calcium fluoride content ≤ 97% was 17999.854 tons, up 31.66% from the previous month. In terms of imports, the performance of imported fluorite this month was stable, and imported powder ore from Mongolia and Africa has flowed into the domestic market. However, due to insufficient operation of overseas equipment and the influence of market factors, the supply increase was limited, and the port price followed the market and was weak. In terms of foreign trade, this week China's export container freight rate comprehensive index was 1342.46 points, up 8% from the previous period. The export container transportation market continued to show a positive situation during the week, and the freight rates of most ocean routes rose, and the export cost of fluorite continued to rise.

Market Forecast: The fluorite market continued to fluctuate in a weak pattern in June, but the decline has slowed down. As the price has gradually approached the cost line recently, manufacturers have increased their production cuts to maintain prices, fluorite supply has tightened, and on-site transactions, especially low-priced sources, have shrunk. The demand side continues to be sluggish. The current off-season has arrived. The hydrofluoric acid and aluminum fluoride industries are dragged down by the terminal, and most of the profits are inverted. Therefore, the willingness to purchase is cautious, and the demand for fluorite is weak. Therefore, in general, under the weak supply and demand situation, the market trading activity is limited, and the game between buyers and sellers has increased. In summary, it is expected that the price of fluorite will fall slightly in July, the transaction scale will be reduced, and the fluctuation range will be between 0-100 yuan/ton. In terms of foreign trade, the fluorite import and export market is expected to operate smoothly. In the future, we need to pay close attention to the safety and environmental protection policies of various regions, the foreign exchange shipping situation, and the dynamics of downstream devices.